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The sea ice of Article 234 of UNCLOS represents not the physical ice of the Arctic Ocean but a negotiated myth of ice as it affects the Arctic littoral states. The stability of this prescription is threatened by anthropogenic climate change causing a preferential evacuation of ice from the eastern Arctic compared to the western Arctic, as well as expectations for a possible future ice-free Arctic. This is leading to an intensification of claims on marine space. The irreducible uncertainties of the future trajectory of Arctic change demands a dynamic response. The myth of Article 234 will ultimately align with the complexities of the phenomenon of disappearing ice. It is in the dynamic nature of international law that prescriptions do not remain constant and neither does ice. 

Sea ice levies an impost on maritime navigability in the Arctic, but ice cover diminution due to anthropogenic climate change is generating expectations for improved accessibility in coming decades. Projections of sea ice cover retreating preferentially from the eastern Arctic suggest key provisions of international law of the sea will require revision. Specifically, protections against marine pollution in ice-covered seas enshrined in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have been used in recent decades to extend jurisdictional competence over the Northern Sea Route only loosely associated with environmental outcomes. Projections show that plausible open water routes through international waters may be accessible by midcentury under all but the most aggressive of emissions control scenarios. While inter- and intraannual variability places the economic viability of these routes in question for some time, the inevitability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be attended by a reduction of regulatory friction and a recalibration of associated legal frameworks.